Stochastic MCDM with normal approximation of the uniformly distributed variables for assessing sustainable insulation materials

Abstract

The sustainability-related decision-making oftentimes involves uncertain information. One of the key solutions in representing the interval information is the use of the interval information (numbers). This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making approach that relies on the algebra of random variables in handling the interval information. The interval information is provided in the form of the uniform distributions that are represented by mean and variance parameters. Following the central limit theorem, the normal approximation is involved. Then, the pair-wise comparisons are facilitated to establish the probabilities of dominance and rank the alternatives accordingly. The proposed approach allows for effectively handling the uncertainty and is user-friendly. The empirical application dealing with selection of the sustainable insulation materials is presented to validate the proposed approach. The technological, economic, environmental, and social facets of sustainability are considered when comparing the insulation materials. Sensitivity of the results is then checked via the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Interval data; Random variables; Stochastic MCDM; Sustainability; Uncertainty.