This study uses material flow analysis to investigate the amounts and pathways of municipal plastic waste (MPW) in Thailand. The aim is to understand the country's situation and investigate the effects of Thailand's Roadmap on Plastic Waste Management 2018-2030, which sets a goal for recycling 'target plastic waste' at 100% by 2027. The analysis was conducted using waste statistics between 2008 and 2020 and waste forecasts. Two scenarios of plastic waste management, the business-as-usual, and the national roadmap, were constructed for 2025 and 2030. In 2030, the annual MPW generation is projected to reach 2.19 Mt. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the recycling and utilisation rate will be 32.3% of waste generated. About 30.3% of waste generated will not be treated properly and possibly leaked into the open environment. Under the roadmap scenario, the recycling and utilisation rate will increase to 98.4%, while 1.6% of waste generated will not be treated properly. The recycling rate for target plastic waste in 2027 could only reach 67.1% because plastic waste is required as fuel for waste incinerators and industries. With the roadmap fully implemented, certain effects can be foreseen for waste-to-energy and plastic industries. Findings from this study stress on the importance of holistic policy planning, efficient prioritising and allocating of waste as a resource, and cooperation from all sectors for sustainable plastic waste management.
Keywords: Plastic waste; forecasting; material flow analysis; national policy; waste management scenario.