Artificial neural networks for prediction of COVID-19 in India by using backpropagation

Balakrishnama Manohar; Raja Das

doi:10.1111/exsy.13105

Artificial neural networks for prediction of COVID-19 in India by using backpropagation

Expert Syst. 2022 Aug 2:e13105. doi: 10.1111/exsy.13105. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Balakrishnama Manohar¹, Raja Das²

Affiliations

¹ Research Scholar, School of Advanced Sciences Vellore Institute of Technology Vellore India.
² Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences Vellore Institute of Technology Vellore India.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected thousands of people around the world. In this study, we used artificial neural network (ANN) models to forecast the COVID-19 outbreak for policymakers based on 1st January to 31st October 2021 of positive cases in India. In the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India, it's critical to use an estimating model with a high degree of accuracy to get a clear understanding of the situation. Two explicit mathematical prediction models were used in this work to anticipate the COVID-19 epidemic in India. A Boltzmann Function-based model and Beesham's prediction model are among these methods and also estimated using the advanced ANN-BP models. The COVID-19 information was partitioned into two sections: training and testing. The former was utilized for training the ANN-BP models, and the latter was used to test them. The information examination uncovers critical day-by-day affirmed case changes, yet additionally unmistakable scopes of absolute affirmed cases revealed across the time span considered. The ANN-BP model that takes into consideration the preceding 14-days outperforms the others based on the archived results. In forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic, this comparison provides the maximum incubation period, in India. Mean square error, and mean absolute percent error have been treated as the forecast model performs more accurately and gets good results. In view of the findings, the ANN-BP model that considers the past 14-days for the forecast is proposed to predict everyday affirmed cases, especially in India that have encountered the main pinnacle of the COVID-19 outbreak. This work has not just demonstrated the relevance of the ANN-BP techniques for the expectation of the COVID-19 outbreak yet additionally showed that considering the incubation time of COVID-19 in forecast models might produce more accurate assessments.

Keywords: Beesham's prediction model; Boltzmann function‐based model; COVID‐19 outbreak; artificial intelligence; artificial neural network; backpropagation; estimate model.