Impact Assessment of COVID-19 Lockdown on Vertical Distributions of NO2 and HCHO From MAX-DOAS Observations and Machine Learning Models

Abstract

Responses to the COVID-19 pandemic led to major reductions on air pollutant emissions in modern history. To date, there has been no comprehensive assessment for the impact of lockdowns on the vertical distributions of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Based on profiles from 0 to 2 km retrieved by Multi-AXis-Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy observation and a large volume of real-time data at a suburb site in Shanghai, China, four types of machine learning models were developed and compared, including multiple linear regression, support vector machine, bagged trees (BT), and artificial neural network. Ultimately BT model was employed to reproduce NO₂ and HCHO profiles with the best performance. Predictions with different meteorological and surface pollution scenarios were conducted from 2017 to 2019, for assessing the corresponding impacts on the changes of NO₂ and HCHO profiles during COVID-19 lockdown. The simulations illustrate that the NO₂ decreased in 2020 by 43.8%, 45.5%, and 44.6%, relative to 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. For HCHO, the lockdown-induced situation presented the declines of 28.6%, 32.1%, and 10.9%, respectively. In the comparisons of vertical distributions, NO₂ maintained decreasing at all altitudes, while HCHO decreased at low altitudes and increased at high altitudes. During COVID-19 lockdown, the reduction of NO₂ and HCHO from the variation of surface pollutants was dominated below 0.5 km, while the relevant meteorological factors played a more significant role above 0.5 km.