Modeling how patterns of light and dark affect circadian phase is important clinically and organizationally (e.g., the military) because circadian disruption can compromise health and performance. Limit-cycle oscillator models in various forms have been used to characterize phase changes to a limited set of light interventions. We approached the analysis of the van der Pol oscillator-based model proposed by Kronauer and colleagues in 1999 and 2000 (Kronauer99) using a well-established framework from experimental psychology whereby the stimulus (S) acts on the organism (O) to produce a response (R). Within that framework, using four independent data sets utilizing calibrated personal light measurements, we conducted a serial analysis of the factors in the Kronauer99 model that could affect prediction accuracy characterized by changes in dim-light melatonin onset. Prediction uncertainty was slightly greater than 1 h for the new data sets using the original Kronauer99 model. The revised model described here reduced prediction uncertainty for these same data sets by roughly half.
Keywords: circadian phase; circadian rhythms; light; modeling; van der Pol oscillator.
Copyright © 2022 Rea, Nagare, Bierman and Figueiro.