Rapid urbanization with poor city planning has resulted in severe air pollution in urban areas of low- and middle-income countries. Given the adverse impacts of air pollution, citizens may develop ideation of averting behaviors, including migration to another region. The current study explores the psychological mechanism and demographic predictors of internal migration intention among urban people in Hanoi, Vietnam-one of the most polluted capital cities in the world. The Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics was used to construct a model and perform Bayesian analysis on a stratified random sampling dataset of 475 urban people. We found that migration intention was negatively associated with an individual's satisfaction with air quality. The association was moderated by the perceived availability of a nearby alternative (i.e., a nearby province/city with better air quality). The high migration cost due to geographical distance made the moderation effect of the perceived availability of a faraway alternative negligible. These results validate the proposed psychological mechanism behind the emergence of migration intention. Moreover, it was found that male and young people were more likely to migrate. While the brain drain effect did not clearly show, it is likely due to complex underlying interactions of various related factors (e.g., age and gender). The results hint that without air pollution mitigation measures, the dislocation of economic forces might occur and hinder sustainable urban development. Therefore, collaborative actions among levels of government, with the environmental semi-conducting principle at heart, are recommended to reduce air pollution.
Keywords: BMF analytics; air pollution; migration intention; mindsponge theory; psychological mechanism; urban development.