Dynamic Response of Surface Water Temperature in Urban Lakes under Different Climate Scenarios-A Case Study in Dianchi Lake, China

Haimei Duan; Chunxue Shang; Kun Yang; Yi Luo

doi:10.3390/ijerph191912142

Dynamic Response of Surface Water Temperature in Urban Lakes under Different Climate Scenarios-A Case Study in Dianchi Lake, China

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 25;19(19):12142. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191912142.

Authors

Haimei Duan^{1

2}, Chunxue Shang³, Kun Yang^{1

2}, Yi Luo^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China.
² GIS Technology Research Center of Resource and Environment in Western China, Ministry of Education, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China.
³ Dean's Office, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China.

Abstract

Lake surface water temperature is a fundamental metabolic indicator of lake ecosystems that affects the exchange of material and energy in lake ecosystems. Estimating and predicting changes in lake surface water temperature is crucial to lake ecosystem research. This study selected Dianchi Lake, a typical urban lake in China, as the research area and used the Air2water model combined with the Mann-Kendall mutation statistical method to analyze the temporal and spatial variation in the surface water temperature of Dianchi Lake under three climate models. The research results show that, under the RCP 5-8.5 scenario model, the surface water temperature change rate for Dianchi Lake from 2015 to 2100 would be 0.28 ℃/10a, which was the largest change rate among the three selected scenarios. The rate of change during 2015-2100 would be 9.33 times higher than that during the historical period (1900-2014) (0.03 °C/10a). Against the background of Niulan River water diversion and rapid urbanization, the surface water temperature of Dianchi Lake experienced abrupt changes in 1992, 2016, 2017, and 2022. Against the background of urbanization, the impact of human activities on the surface water temperature of urban lakes will become greater.

Keywords: Air2water; LSWT; climate model.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

China
Ecosystem*
Environmental Monitoring / methods
Humans
Lakes*
Temperature
Water

Substances

Water

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC): Yi Luo 41761084; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC): Yi Luo 41761037; and the Yunnan Normal University Graduate Student Research Innovation Fund Project: Haimei Duan YJSJJ22-B100.