Increased human risk caused by cascading hazards - A framework

Shuai Zhang; Bijiao Wang; Limin Zhang; Suzanne Lacasse; Farrokh Nadim; Yunmin Chen

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159308

Increased human risk caused by cascading hazards - A framework

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jan 20;857(Pt 1):159308. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159308. Epub 2022 Oct 7.

Authors

Shuai Zhang¹, Bijiao Wang¹, Limin Zhang², Suzanne Lacasse³, Farrokh Nadim³, Yunmin Chen¹

Affiliations

¹ MOE Key Laboratory of Soft Soils and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong. Electronic address: cezhangl@ust.hk.
³ Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway.

PMID: 36216049
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159308

Abstract

Cascading hazards occur frequently. Unexpected casualties and losses of properties, or even impacts on the society and the environment may ensue from failure to anticipate the amplified risks induced by cascading hazards. Current risk assessment methods pay relatively less attention to quantifying the increased human risk related to "cascading" events. An improved framework for quantifying the human risk caused by cascading hazards is proposed in this paper. The framework considers the interactions among the cascading hazards and among the vulnerabilities of elements to these hazards. Its kernel is to scientifically anticipate and gear up for any new intensified hazards, which may otherwise lead to serious social aftermath. The framework is illustrated with a multi-hazard example close to the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake, which involved a chain of hazards including slope failures, a large debris flow, river damming, and flooding.

Keywords: Cascading hazards; Human risk; Interaction; Risk analysis.

MeSH terms

Earthquakes*
Floods
Humans
Risk Assessment