A new drought index and its application based on geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and multi-source remote sensing data

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(7):17865-17887. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23200-8. Epub 2022 Oct 6.

Abstract

Drought is the most widespread natural disaster in the world. How to monitor regional drought scientifically and accurately has become a hot topic for many scholars. In this paper, Geographically Integrated Dryness Index (GIDI) was integrated from an assortment source including Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (as the dependent variable) based on geographically weighted regression method. Besides, the comprehensive drought situation and changing trends in China from 2001 to 2019 were also examined. The results showed that (1) GIDI has excellent performance in monitoring medium- and long-term droughts and the monitoring results shows 2003, 2016, and 2019 were relatively wet years, while 2007, 2009, and 2011 were major drought years, and spring and March were the most frequent droughts season and month, respectively, and (2) except for the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River and Northeastern China, which have a tendency to become wet, other places have a tendency to fluctuating dry. This study took advantage of simple and efficient methods to integrate existing indices to obtain a new index for monitoring a wider range of droughts, taking into account the physical mechanism of drought formation and the time scale of drought development, so it can scientifically evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought and changes.

Keywords: China; Drought monitoring; Geographically weighted regression; Hot spot analysis; Spatiotemporal data mining.

MeSH terms

  • China
  • Droughts*
  • Environmental Monitoring / methods
  • Remote Sensing Technology* / methods
  • Seasons
  • Spatial Regression