The impact of the armed conflict in Afghanistan on vegetation dynamics

Zhijie Zhang; Jingyi Ding; Wenwu Zhao; Yue Liu; Paulo Pereira

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159138

The impact of the armed conflict in Afghanistan on vegetation dynamics

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jan 15;856(Pt 2):159138. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159138. Epub 2022 Sep 30.

Authors

Zhijie Zhang¹, Jingyi Ding², Wenwu Zhao³, Yue Liu², Paulo Pereira⁴

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Zhuhai Branch of State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
³ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: zhaoww@bnu.edu.cn.
⁴ Environmental Management Center, Mykolas Romeris University, Ateities g. 20, 08303 Vilnius, Lithuania.

PMID: 36191719
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159138

Abstract

Armed conflicts disturb the environment and impair land productivity. Afghanistan has been submerged in conflict for >20 years, affecting the environment dramatically. In this study, we used the Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) to investigate vegetation's spatial and temporal changes and the potential underpinned mechanisms. We found a 16.44 % increase in NDVI in Afghanistan from 2000 to 2021. The average NDVI growth rate was 11.33 % (within 5 km distance from the armed conflict), higher in the conflict group than in the non-conflict group. People migration may have reduced the human impacts on the environment. The relative contribution of armed conflict to vegetation growth was 3.17 %. Our results showed that the vegetation in Afghanistan increased, confirming the idea that depopulation increase greenness. Despite the reduced variance explained by the war (R² values around 0.3), our study provides empirical evidence on the linkages between the war and vegetation change in Afghanistan.

Keywords: Afghanistan; Armed conflicts; Environment; Greening; Propensity score matching; Vegetation dynamics.

MeSH terms

Afghanistan
Armed Conflicts*
Humans