Uncertainty quantification of PM2.5 concentrations using a hybrid model based on characteristic decomposition and fuzzy granulation

Abstract

The prediction of air pollution plays an important role in reducing the emission of air pollutants and guiding people to carry out early warning and control, so it attracts many scholars to conduct modeling and research on it. However, most of the current researches fail to quantify the uncertainty in prediction and only use traditional fuzzy information granulation to process data, resulting in the loss of much detail information. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on decomposition and granular fuzzy information to solve these problems. The trend item and the Granulation fluctuation item are respectively predicted and the results are combined to obtain the change trend and fluctuation range of the sequence. This paper selects PM_2.5 concentrations of 3 cities. The experimental results show that the evaluation index of the prediction model is significantly lower than other benchmark models, and a variety of statistical methods are used to further verify the effectiveness of the prediction model.

Keywords: Characteristic decomposition; Fuzzy information granulation; PM(2.5) concentrations; Uncertainty quantification.