Cost-effectiveness analysis of extensive green roofs for urban stormwater control in response to future climate change scenarios

Abstract

Green roof, as a popular low impact development practice, has become important to mitigate adverse impacts of future climate change on urban stormwater. However, there is limited information regarding assessment of the effectiveness of green roofs in response to uncertain future climate change challenges. In this study, the validated model was used to simulate the reduction performance of green roofs on urban catchment outflow and assess their cost-effectiveness in response to design storms under climate change scenarios. Results showed that the median runoff volume of urban catchments increased by 12.5 %-14.6 % and 15.5 %-18.1 % and the median peak flow rate increased by 14.4 %-17.8 % and 17.9 %-22.1 % under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. This indicated the variability of runoff volume and peak flow changes for short return storm events caused by climate change was relatively high. Green roof implementation had reasonable mitigation effects on runoff volume and peak flow amplification in urban catchments caused by climate change. The median runoff volume reduction of green roofs for the 1-year storm was 15.2 % under SSP2-4.5 scenario. As rainfall intensity increased, the median runoff volume reduction of green roofs significantly declined to 5.6 % for the 100-year storm. However, the variations of runoff volume and peak flow reduction of green roofs were relatively smaller for longer return periods under climate change scenarios. Runoff reduction percentages of green roofs increased linearly with their implementation cost. The average value of the cost-effectiveness (C/E) index for green roofs was 91.2 %/million $ under base climate condition, and it decreased to 88.9 %/million $ and 88.4 %/million $ for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The C/E values decreased with increasing storm return period, and the values were relatively lower in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These results could help to understand the potential role of green roofs to mitigate the impacts of future climate change.

Keywords: Climate change; Cost-effectiveness; Design storms; Peak flow; Reduction performance; SWMM model.