Development and validation of a nomogram model for cancer-specific survival of patients with poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma: A SEER database analysis

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to establish and validate an accurate prognostic model, based on demographic and clinical parameters, for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma (PDTC).

Materials and methods: Patients diagnosed with PDTC between 2004 to 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Randomly split the data into training and validation sets. Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test was performed to compare the survival distribution among cases. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors, which were subsequently utilized to construct a nomogram for predicting the 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival of patients with PDTC. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram model were assessed using the concordance index and calibration plots, respectively. In addition, we performed a decision curve analysis to assess the clinical value of the nomogram. Simultaneously, we compared the predictive performance of the nomogram model against that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T-, N-, M-stage.

Results: A total of 970 eligible patients were randomly assigned to either a training cohort (n = 679) or a validation cohort (n = 291). The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that there were no significant differences in cumulative survival based on the race, radiation, and marital status of patients. The stepwise Cox regression model showed that the model was optimal when the following five variables were included: age, tumor size, T-, N-, and M-stage. A nomogram was developed as a graphical representation of the model and exhibited good calibration and discriminative ability in the study. Compared to the T-, N-, and M-stage, the C-index of nomogram (training group: 0.807, validation group: 0.802), the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training set (5-year AUC: 0.843, 10-year AUC:0.834) and the validation set (5-year AUC:0.878, 10-year AUC:0.811), and the calibration plots of this model all exhibited better performance. At last, compared with T-, N-, and M-stage, the decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram had excellent clinical net benefit.

Conclusions: The nomogram developed by us can accurately predict the CSS of PDTC patients. It can help clinicians determine appropriate treatment strategies for poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients.

Keywords: SEER database; cancer-specific survival; nomogram; poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma; prognostic model.