Episodes of extreme international capital inflows in emerging and developing economies: The role of global economic policy uncertainty

PLoS One. 2022 Sep 28;17(9):e0275249. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275249. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Based on annual data for 31 emerging and developing economies in the period 2000-2020, this paper explores the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on episodes of extreme international capital inflows. Following previous researches, we identify episodes of surges and stops. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty can significantly increase the probability of surges and decrease the probability of stops in emerging and developing economies. The heterogeneity tests show that these effects vary with economic growth, financial development, the degree of economic globalization and global liquidity. Above effects are significant in the groups with higher economic growth, higher financial development, higher economic globalization and higher global liquidity. Further analyses show that as global economic policy uncertainty rises, its impact on surges and stops gradually declines. In addition, global economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on the surge in advanced economies, which could confirm the above conclusion to a certain extent.

MeSH terms

  • Carbon Dioxide
  • Economic Development*
  • Internationality*
  • Uncertainty

Substances

  • Carbon Dioxide

Grants and funding

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.