Trends in nationwide incidence of pediatric type 1 diabetes in Montenegro during the last 30 years

Abstract

Significant and unexplained variations in type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence through the years were observed all around the world. The update on this disorder's incidence is crucial for adequate healthcare resource planning and monitoring of the disease. The aim of this study was to give an update on the current incidence of pediatric T1D in Montenegro and to analyze incidence changes over time and how the exposure to different factors might have affected it. This retrospective cohort study included a total of 582 patients younger than 15 years who were newly diagnosed with T1D during the past 30 years. The average age at diagnosis was 8.4 ± 3.91 years. The mean annual incidence of T1D in the Montenegro population during the whole study period of 30 years was 15.2/100,000 person-years. Slightly higher incidence rates were observed in male compared to female individuals, and the incidence increased with age, with the highest incidence in the 10-14 age group. If the model is observed as one without jointpoints, the annual percentage change (APC) for the total population is 3.1 (1.8-4.4); for male individuals, 3.8 (2.1-5.5); and for female individuals, 2.1 (0.6-3.5). In 2020, the first year of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, in comparison to 2019, the incidence rate increased from 19.7/100,000 to 21.5/100,000, with the highest increase in the age group of 5-9 years. This is the first nationwide report on a 30-year period of T1D incidence trend in Montenegro. It suggests that T1D incidence among Montenegrin children is rising again and that there is a short-term influence of COVID-19 on new-onset T1D.

Keywords: COVID19; Montenegro (Crna Gora); T1D; diabetes mellitus; incidence.