A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change

Komi Mensah Agboka; Henri E Z Tonnang; Elfatih M Abdel-Rahman; John Odindi; Onisimo Mutanga; Samira A Mohamed

doi:10.3390/biology11091280

A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change

Biology (Basel). 2022 Aug 28;11(9):1280. doi: 10.3390/biology11091280.

Authors

Komi Mensah Agboka^{1

2}, Henri E Z Tonnang¹, Elfatih M Abdel-Rahman¹, John Odindi², Onisimo Mutanga², Samira A Mohamed¹

Affiliations

¹ International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE), Nairobi P.O. Box 30772-00100, Kenya.
² School of Agricultural, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg 3209, South Africa.

Abstract

The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta, causes up to 100% tomato crop losses. As Tuta absoluta is non-native to African agroecologies and lacks efficient resident natural enemies, the microgastrine koinobiont solitary oligophagous larval endoparasitoid, Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris (Marsh) (Syn.: Apanteles gelechiidivoris Marsh) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was released for classical biological control. This study elucidates the current and future spatio-temporal performance of D. gelechiidivoris against T. absoluta in tomato cropping systems using a fuzzy logic modelling approach. Specifically, the study considers the presence of the host and the host crop, as well as the parasitoid reproductive capacity, as key variables. Results show that the fuzzy algorithm predicted the performance of the parasitoid (in terms of net reproductive rate (R0)), with a low root mean square error (RMSE) value (<0.90) and a considerably high R2 coefficient (=0.98), accurately predicting the parasitoid performance over time and space. Under the current climatic scenario, the parasitoid is predicted to perform well in all regions throughout the year, except for the coastal region. Under the future climatic scenario, the performance of the parasitoid is projected to improve in all regions throughout the year. Overall, the model sheds light on the varying performance of the parasitoid across different regions of Kenya, and in different seasons, under both current and future climatic scenarios.

Keywords: biological control; crop pests; fuzzy sets; parasitoid; tomato farms.

Grants and funding

This work received financial support from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), commissioned by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) through the Fund International Agricultural Research (FIA) (grant number: 81250394); the Biovision foundation Tuta IPM project (project ID: BV DPP-012/2019–2021); and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, the section for research, innovation and higher education grant number RAF-3058 KEN-18/0005. In addition, the authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this research from the following organizations and agencies: the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida); the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC); the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; and the Government of the Republic of Kenya. The first author of this study is supported by the German Academic Exchange Service’s In-Region Postgraduate Scholarship (DAAD). The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the donors.