Cyanobacteria are a bloom-forming ancient group of photosynthetic prokaryotes. A rise in temperature is a major contributor to its massive proliferation, namely on freshwater ecosystems, with social and economic impacts. Thus, reliable and cost-effective tools can permit the fast surveillance and assessment of temperature effects on potentially toxic cyanobacteria distribution and impacts. The occurrence of three potentially toxic cyanobacteria species was assessed on seven sampling points across three sampling years. Moreover, the association between the occurrence of those cyanobacteria species with climate change events was addressed. Here, we combined molecular and statistical methods to study the impacts of temperature on the occurrence of three globally occurring cyanotoxin-producing cyanobacteria species-Microcystis aeruginosa (microcystins), Raphidiopsis raciborskii (cylindrospermopsins and saxitoxins) and Planktothrix agardhii (microcystins and saxitoxins). Samples were collected on seven European temperate freshwater systems located on the North and Centre regions of Portugal, across three distinct sampling years with distinct ranges of air temperature. Data support that M. aeruginosa is still a common inhabitant of Portuguese freshwater ecosystems and a new trend was found on R. raciborskii recent invasion and establishment on the colder north ecosystems of Portugal. Additionally, the highest frequency of detection of both cyanobacteria was associated with warmer years. P. agardhii also revealed a new trend, being reported for the first time on North and Centre Regions of Portugal, however with no statistical relation with air temperature, demonstrating a higher ecological fitness. Distinct profiles of the statistical analysis on the three tested cyanobacteria species contribute to deepen the studies on other species as well as of our analyzed species on a global level. This assessment may help to anticipate possible repercussions on water quality and public health due to most probable alterations on cyanotoxins profile given the ecological fitness established among air temperature and PCR detection of potentially toxic cyanobacteria.
Keywords: Microcystis aeruginosa; Planktothrix agardhii; Raphidiopsis raciborskii; air temperature; logistic regression.