Estimating the population size of a mountain galliform in the context of multi-stakeholder adaptive management

Abstract

We designed a participatory monitoring program for the capercaillie population in the French Pyrenees based on lek censuses conducted during the breeding season. This program was implemented by a consortium of stakeholders interested in the conservation of French galliforms. The program, carried out since 2010, relied on a dual frame sampling approach: The first sampled frame was the list of all known leks in the study area. We distinguished two types of known leks: leks known to be active before the onset of the program (with at least one cock detected since 2000) and leks with an indeterminate activity status at the time of the onset of the program. The monitoring program also accounted for the existence of leks that were unknown due mainly to incomplete expert knowledge. We therefore built a complementary area frame by discretizing the study area into a set of 4-km² grid cells. These cells were then sampled and searched to find unknown leks. When unknown leks were found, cock censuses were organized. An additional field experiment allowed us to estimate the detection probability of unknown leks during these cell searches. We then fitted two hierarchical models: (i) An N-mixture model fitted to the lek census data set allowed us to estimate the mean number of cocks on the three types of leks (known active, known indeterminate, and unknown leks); and (ii) another model fitted to the cell search data set allowed us to estimate the number of unknown leks in the studied mountain range. By multiplying the estimated mean numbers of cocks associated with the three types of leks by the number of leks of each type (an estimated value in the case of unknown leks), we obtained estimates of the total numbers of cocks on all leks at different spatial scales in the study area every 2 years. Our model suggests that the capercaillie cock population was stable from 2010 to 2017 over the whole range but decreased slightly in the foothill area and western part, a decrease that worsened in 2018-2019.

Keywords: N-mixture model; capercaillie; hierarchical model; participatory science; sampling design.