Econometric Issues in Prospective Economic Evaluations Alongside Clinical Trials: Combining the Nonparametric Bootstrap With Methods That Address Missing Data

Abstract

Prospective economic evaluations conducted alongside clinical trials have become an increasingly popular approach in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a public health initiative or treatment intervention. These types of economic studies provide improved internal validity and accuracy of cost and effectiveness estimates of health interventions and, compared with simulation or decision-analytic models, have the advantage of jointly observing health and economics outcomes of trial participants. However, missing data due to incomplete response or patient attrition, and sampling uncertainty are common concerns in econometric analysis of clinical trials. Missing data are a particular problem for comparative effectiveness trials of substance use disorder interventions. Multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting are 2 widely recommended methods to address missing data bias, and the nonparametric bootstrap is recommended to address uncertainty in predicted mean cost and effectiveness between trial interventions. Although these methods have been studied extensively by themselves, little is known about how to appropriately combine them and about the potential pitfalls and advantages of different approaches. We provide a review of statistical methods used in 29 economic evaluations of substance use disorder intervention identified from 4 published systematic reviews and a targeted search of the literature. We evaluate how each study addressed missing data bias, whether the recommended nonparametric bootstrap was used, how these 2 methods were combined, and conclude with recommendations for future research.

Keywords: inverse probability weighting; missing data mechanism; models, econometric; multiple imputation; nonparametric bootstrap; substance-related disorders.