Agent-Based Simulation of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Russia

G N Rykovanov; S N Lebedev; O V Zatsepin; G D Kaminskii; E V Karamov; A A Romanyukha; A M Feigin; B N Chetverushkin

doi:10.1134/S1019331622040219

Agent-Based Simulation of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Russia

Her Russ Acad Sci. 2022;92(4):479-487. doi: 10.1134/S1019331622040219. Epub 2022 Sep 6.

Authors

G N Rykovanov¹, S N Lebedev¹, O V Zatsepin¹, G D Kaminskii², E V Karamov^{2

3}, A A Romanyukha⁴, A M Feigin⁵, B N Chetverushkin⁶

Affiliations

¹ Russian Federal Nuclear Center‒Zababakhin All-Russia Scientific Research Institute of Technical Physics, Snezhinsk, Russia.
² National Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious Diseases, Moscow, Russia.
³ Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Moscow, Russia.
⁴ Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
⁵ Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.
⁶ Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health emergency in Russia and across the world. The wavelike spread of the new coronavirus infection, caused by newly emerging variants of the coronavirus, has led to a high incidence rate in all subjects of the Russian Federation. It is becoming extremely topical to get the opportunity to manage the development of the epidemic and assess the impact of certain regulatory measures on this process. This will help government agencies make informed decisions to control the burden on healthcare organizations. It is often impossible to obtain such assessments without using modern mathematical models.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; forecast for the development of the COVID-19 epidemic; mathematical modeling.

© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2022, ISSN 1019-3316, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2022, Vol. 92, No. 4, pp. 479–487. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2022.Russian Text © The Author(s), 2022, published in Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 2022, Vol. 92, No. 8, pp. 747–755.