Dynamic correlations and portfolio implications across stock and commodity markets before and during the COVID-19 era: A key role of gold

Xiaoxing Liu; Khurram Shehzad; Emrah Kocak; Umer Zaman

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102985

Dynamic correlations and portfolio implications across stock and commodity markets before and during the COVID-19 era: A key role of gold

Resour Policy. 2022 Dec:79:102985. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102985. Epub 2022 Sep 6.

Authors

Xiaoxing Liu¹, Khurram Shehzad¹, Emrah Kocak², Umer Zaman³

Affiliations

¹ School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
² Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Erciyes University, 38039 Melikgazi-Kayseri, Turkey.
³ Endicott College of International Studies, Woosong University, Daejeon, 34606, South Korea.

Abstract

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected stock markets around the globe, adding serious challenges to asset allocations and hedging strategies. This investigation analyses the dynamic correlations and portfolio implications among the S&P 500 index and various commodities (gold, WTI crude oil, Brent oil, beverages, and wheat) before and during the COVID-19 era. Using multivariate asymmetric GARCH models, the results show weak correlations during the standard period. However, the correlations intensify and become more complicated during the COVID-19 era, especially between gold and S&P 500. Similarly, bidirectional return and volatility spillovers across stock-commodity markets are more pronounced during the COVID-19 outbreak. Analysis involving the optimal portfolio weights and time-varying hedge ratios indicates that a $1long position in the S&P 500 can be hedged for 15 cents in crude oil during the standard period and for 33 cents in gold during the COVID-19 era. A portfolio of S&P 500 - beverages displays the highest VaR, while a portfolio of S&P 500 - gold displays the lowest VaR, especially during the COVID-19 era. This finding suggests that gold offers better portfolio diversification benefits and downside risk reductions, which are useful in determining strategies for portfolio investors during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Keywords: Commodity markets; Crude oil; Gold; Mean and volatility spillovers; S&P 500 index; VAR-DCC-MEGARCH model; Value at risk.