Rapid economic growth and social development in China have led to serious water pollution problems and water resource shortages, limiting the sustainable development that could support both the socio-economy and water resources carrying capacity (WRECC). However, the spatial heterogeneity and evolutionary characteristics of the coordination between the WRECC and economic development have not been adequately explored in China. In this study, we developed the support and pressure indicators of China's 30 provinces and then analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution characteristics of their WRECC by using the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. The main findings are shown in the following: (i) From a temporal perspective, there has been an overall upward trend in the WRECC to support human activities; however, the WRECC level is not high. Approximately 63.7% of provinces remain in an overloaded state, indicating that the support indicator of most provinces is smaller than the pressure indicator imposed by human social activities. (ii) There are significant spatial differences in the WRECC indicators across provinces. Provinces with low-level WRECCs are concentrated in central China but decrease significantly from the country's borders to its center. Eastern regions have a medium-level of WRECC with the greatest degree of regional difference, while western regions have a high-level of WRECC with the smallest degree of regional difference. The variation of WRECC is attributed to within-group differences in the three geographical regions in China. (iii) The factors that significantly impact the WRECC include population density, gross domestic product (GDP), temperature, urbanization, the added value of tertiary industry within the GDP, and R&D expenditures. GDP and R&D expenditures positively impact the WRECC, while the other four factors have different influences on the WRECC. (iv) The spatial distributions of driving factors show significant aggregation characteristics, with decreasing trends from the eastern to western regions and from the southern to northern regions. These findings present a comprehensive understanding of the current WRECC in China's provinces which can be used as a reference for realizing environmentally sustainable water development strategies under high-quality economic development.
Keywords: geographically and temporally weighted regression; high-quality development; support-pressure model; water resource and environment carrying capacity.