Introduction: The incidence of thin and early-stage melanoma is increasing in many populations, but the clinical significance of these lesions remains partly unknown.
Methods: Firstly, melanoma deaths in Denmark (2009-2018) were followed back to establish melanoma debut in these persons. Secondly, using national registries of cancer incidence and mortality, 27,036 persons with thin or early-stage melanoma were followed-up for melanoma death.
Results: It is estimated that in 11% of the persons who died from melanoma, the debut was a thin or early-stage melanoma. On follow-up of persons with thin or early-stage melanoma, the 20-year risk of dying from melanoma was 3%.
Conclusion: The absolute risk of melanoma death after a diagnosis with thin or early-stage melanoma is low. A subgroup of patients who are at a high risk may possibly be identified by a combination of stage, thickness, ulceration and dermal mitoses.
Funding: none.
Trial registration: not relevant.
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