Seasonal influenza kills hundreds of thousands every year, with multiple constantly changing strains in circulation at any given time. A high mutation rate enables the influenza virus to evade recognition by the human immune system, including immunity acquired through past infection and vaccination. Here, we capture the genetic similarity of influenza strains and their evolutionary dynamics with genotype networks. We show that the genotype networks of influenza A (H3N2) hemagglutinin are characterized by heavy-tailed distributions of module sizes and connectivity indicative of critical behavior. We argue that (i) genotype networks are driven by mutation and host immunity to explore a subspace of networks predictable in structure and (ii) genotype networks provide an underlying structure necessary to capture the rich dynamics of multistrain epidemic models. In particular, inclusion of strain-transcending immunity in epidemic models is dependent upon the structure of an underlying genotype network. This interplay is consistent with self-organized criticality where the epidemic dynamics of influenza locates critical regions of its genotype network. We conclude that this interplay between disease dynamics and network structure might be key for future network analysis of pathogen evolution and realistic multistrain epidemic models.
Keywords: complex systems; criticality; disease modeling; genotype network.
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.