Monkeypox (MPX) is an emergent severe zoonotic disease resembling that of smallpox. To date, most cases of human MPX have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). While the number of cases has increased steadily in the DRC over the last 30 years, the environmental risk factors that drive the spatiotemporal dynamics of MPX transmission remain poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal associations between environmental risk factors and annual MPX incidence in the DRC. All MPX cases reported weekly at the health zone level over a 16-year period (2000-2015) were analyzed. A Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear mixed model was conducted to identify the spatiotemporal associations between annual MPX incidence and three types of environmental risk factors illustrating environment as a system resulting from physical, social and cultural interactions Primary forest (IRR 1.034 [1.029-1.040]), economic well-being (IRR 1.038 [1.031-1.047]), and temperature (IRR 1.143 [1.028-1.261]) were positively associated with annual MPX incidence. Our study shows that physical environmental risk factors alone cannot explain the emergence of MPX outbreaks in the DRC. Economic level and cultural practices participate from environment as a whole and thus, must be considered to understand exposure to MPX risk Future studies should examine the impact of these factors in greater detail.
Keywords: Bayesian model; Democratic Republic of the Congo; emerging infectious disease; environmental risk factors; monkeypox.
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