Land-use change is the main driver of biodiversity loss in the Mediterranean basin. New socio-economic conditions produced a rewilding process so that cultural landscapes are being invaded by more natural habitats. We analyze the effects of landscape change on the demography and the spatial distribution of Crocidura russula in six protected areas of the western Mediterranean basin. The study was conducted in the period 2008-2020 on 19 live trapping plots representing the three main natural habitats of the area (scrubland, pinewood, and holm oak woodland). We used a multiscale approach to ensure that the scale of response matched landscape structure (from plot to landscape) using either vegetation profiles (LiDAR) and land use data obtained from years 2007 and 2017. Statistical models (multiple-season single-species occupancy models) showed that C. russula populations were strongly associated to habitat features at the plot level. These models were used to predict occupancy at sampling units for the whole study area (850 km2), showing contrasting trends that shifted at relatively small spatial scales (expansions and retractions of species ranges). Parks showing extreme scrubland encroachment (-8% of area) and afforestation (+6%) significantly reduced habitat suitability for shrews and reductions in occupancy (-5%). Results would indicate faster changes in the spatial distribution of the target species than previously expected on the basis of climate change, driven by fast landscape changes.
Keywords: C. russula; afforestation; landscape change; occupancy models; scrubland encroachment; shrews; small mammals; spatial distribution.