Evidence on the association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories and arterial stiffness progression is scarce. The current study aimed to identify the association between SBP trajectories and the progression of arterial stiffness over time in Chinese adults. This study included 30,384 adult participants. Latent mixture modeling was used to identify the SBP trajectory patterns from 2006 to 2010. The brachial−ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was used to measure arterial stiffness. The associations between SBP trajectories and the progression of arterial stiffness were explored using multiple linear regression models. We identified five distinct SBP trajectories and took the low-stable group as the reference. In the cross-sectional analysis, the four SBP trajectories were significantly associated with higher baPWV levels (p < 0.001) compared with the reference. In the longitudinal analysis, after adjusting for covariates and the baseline baPWV, the SBP trajectories were significantly associated with the progression of the baPWV, with corresponding β (95% CI) values of 23.3 (17.2−29.5) cm/s per year for the moderate-stable group, 44.8 (36.6−52.9) cm/s per year for the moderate-increasing group, 54.6 (42.2−67.0) cm/s per year for the elevated-decreasing group, and 66.8 (54.7−79.0) cm/s per year for the elevated-stable group. Similar significant results were also observed in the non-hypertensive population. In conclusion, SBP trajectories were related to the baseline baPWV and the progression of the baPWV. Blood pressure control may be considered a therapeutic target to further reduce the risk of arterial stiffness.
Keywords: SBP; arterial stiffness; baPWV; longitudinal study; trajectories.