Predicting the concentrations of enteric viruses in urban rivers running through the city center via an artificial neural network

Abstract

Viral waterborne diseases are widespread in cities due largely to the occurrence of enteric viruses in urban rivers, which pose a significant concern to human health. Yet, the application of rapid detection technology for enteric viruses in environmental water remains undeveloped globally. Here, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling and artificial neural network (ANN) modeling, which used frequently measured physicochemical parameters in river water, were constructed to predict the concentration of enteric viruses including human enteroviruses (EnVs), rotaviruses (HRVs), astroviruses (AstVs), noroviruses GⅡ (HuNoVs GⅡ), and adenoviruses (HAdVs) in rivers. After training, testing, and validating, ANN models showed better performance than any MLR model for predicting the viral concentration in Jinhe River. All determined R-values for ANN models exceeded 0.89, suggesting a strong correlation between the predicted and measured outputs for target enteric viruses. Furthermore, ANN models provided a better congruence between the observed and predicted concentrations of each virus than MLR models did. Together, these findings strongly suggest that ANN modeling can provide more accurate and timely predictions of viral concentrations based on frequent (or routine) measurements of physicochemical parameters in river water, which would improve assessments of waterborne disease prevalence in cities.

Keywords: Artificial neural network model; Enteric virus; Multiple linear regression model; Prediction; Urban river.