Background: In metropolitan Tokyo in 2014, Japan experienced its first domestic dengue outbreak since 1945. The objective of the present study was to quantitatively assess the future risk of dengue in Japan using climate change scenarios in a high-resolution geospatial environment by building on a solid theory as a baseline in consideration of future adaptation strategies.
Methods: Using climate change scenarios of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6), representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we computed the daily average temperature and embedded this in the effective reproduction number of dengue, R(T), to calculate the extinction probability and interepidemic period across Japan.
Results: In June and October, the R(T) with daily average temperature T, was <1 as in 2022; however, an elevation in temperature increased the number of days with R(T) >1 during these months under RCP8.5. The time period with a risk of dengue transmission gradually extended to late spring (April-May) and autumn (October-November). Under the RCP8.5 scenario in 2100, the possibility of no dengue-free months was revealed in part of southernmost Okinawa Prefecture, and the epidemic risk extended to the entire part of northernmost Hokkaido Prefecture.
Conclusion: Each locality in Japan must formulate action plans in response to the presented scenarios. Our geographic analysis can help local governments to develop adaptation policies that include mosquito breeding site elimination, distribution of adulticides and larvicides, and elevated situation awareness to prevent transmission via bites from Aedes vectors.
Keywords: arbovirus; basic reproduction number; flavivirus; global warming; mathematical model; temperature.
Copyright © 2022 Hayashi, Fujimoto and Nishiura.