Role of "HinCh Score" as a Non-invasive Predictor of Post-endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Cholangitis

Abstract

Introduction: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) cholangitis (PEC) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients ERCP. The aim of the present study was to analyze the predictors of PEC and to formulate a predictive model for early diagnosis and management.

Materials and methods: It was a cross-sectional study that was carried out at the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation from September 2019 to June 2021. All patients aged between 18 and 75 years and undergoing ERCP due to obstructive jaundice were included. Patients with altered biliary anatomy, history of hepatobiliary surgery, and concurrent sepsis were excluded. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography intervention was performed by an expert gastroenterologist. Laboratory parameters (total leukocyte count, total bilirubin, alanine transaminase) and patient temperature were checked on admission, at 12 hours, 24 hours, and 36 hours after ERCP to document PEC.

Results: A total of 349 patients were included in the study. Among them, 176 (50.4%) patients were males. Common bile duct (CBD) stricture was the most common indication of ERCP seen in 148 (42.4%) patients followed by CBD stone and cholangiocarcinoma in 108 (30.9%) and 48 (13.8%) patients, respectively. The most common presenting complaint was jaundice noted in 300 (86%) patients followed by right hypochondrial pain in 280 (80.2%) and weight loss in 194 (55.6%) patients, respectively. Post-ERCP cholangitis developed in 251 (71.9%) patients. On univariate analysis, age >50 years, female gender, right hypochondrial pain, fever, bilirubin >5 mg/dL on admission, CBD stricture on ERCP, TLC of >10,000 cells/L at 12 hours, 24 hours, and 36 hours post-ERCP and rise in ALT >50 IU 24 and 48 hours post-ERCP were significantly associated with PEC. While on multivariate analysis, female gender, bilirubin >5 mg/dL on admission, CBD stricture on ERCP, post-ERCP fever, and rise in TLC of >10000 cells/L at 24 hours post-ERCP were independently associated with PEC. HinCh score was formulated and was found to be significantly associated with the presence of cholangitis. Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of HinCh score was 0.74 and at cutoff of ≥4, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of HinCh were 81.67%, 59.18%, 83.67%, and 55.71%, respectively with a diagnostic accuracy of 75.36%.

Conclusion: The performance of HinCh score in predicting PEC was accurate in 86% of the patients. However, further studies are needed to validate the score.

How to cite this article: Ismail H, Yaseen RT, Danish M, et al. Role of "HinCh Score" as a Non-invasive Predictor of Post-endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Cholangitis. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2022;12(1):19-23.

Keywords: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; HinCh score; Post-ERCP cholangitis.