Evaluation of potential changes in landslide susceptibility and landslide occurrence frequency in China under climate change

Abstract

Climate change can alter the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall across the globe, leading to changes in hazards posed by rainfall-induced landslides. In recent decades, China suffered great human and economic losses due to rainfall-induced landslides. However, how the landslide hazard situation will evolve in the future is still unclear, also because of sparse comprehensive evaluations of potential changes in landslide susceptibility and landslide occurrence frequency under climate change. This study builds upon observed and modelled rainfall data from 24 bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs), a statistical landslide susceptibility model, and empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation, to evaluate changes in landslide susceptibility and landslide occurrence frequency at national-scale. Based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, changes in the rainfall regime are projected and used to evaluate subsequent alterations in landslide susceptibility and in the frequency of rainfall events exceeding empirical rainfall thresholds. In general, the results indicate that the extend of landslide susceptible terrain and the frequency of landslide-triggering rainfall will increase under climate change. Nevertheless, a closer inspection provides a spatially heterogeneous picture on how these landslide occurrence indicators may evolve across China. Until the late 21st century (2080-2099) and depending on the SSP scenarios, the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by 13.4 % to 28.6 %, inducing an 1.3 % to 2.7 % increase in the modelled areal extent of moderately to very highly susceptible terrain. Different SSP scenarios were associated with an increase in the frequency of landslide-triggering rainfall events by 10.3 % to 19.8 % with respect to historical baseline. Spatially, the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern Basins are projected to experience the largest increase in landslide susceptibility and frequency of landslide-triggering rainfall, especially under the high emission scenarios. Adaptation and mitigation methods should be prioritized for these future landslide hotspots. This work provides a better understanding of potential impacts of climate change on landslide hazard across China and represents a first step towards national-scale quantitative landslide exposure and risk assessment under climate change.

Keywords: CMIP6; Climate change; Climate projections; Landslide; Rainfall; SSP scenarios.