Characterizing the lead (Pb) transfer in the "source-soil-wheat" chain is of great importance for the prevention and control of the Pb accumulation risk in wheat grain harvested from the croplands of China. In this study, we used the Jiyuan City, northern China, as a case study to investigate the influence of contamination sources and soil factors on the accumulation of Pb in wheat grain. A site-specific source risk assessment model (SRAM), coupling the positive matrix factorization model, Freundlich-type function, and the Monte Carlo simulation method, was developed to estimate the risk of Pb accumulation in wheat grain harvested from different scenarios. Based on the results of the spatial analysis, the effectiveness and potential risk of the control measures applied in the study area was also evaluated. Atmospheric deposition and phosphate fertilizer application were identified as major sources contributing to 29.0% of the Pb accumulations in wheat grain. Soil pH and cation-exchange capacity (CEC) were the primary causative factors affecting the Pb accumulation in wheat grain. Cropping wheat in the high Pb continuation risk areas (western and northwestern areas) of Jiyuan City caused a 10.5% likelihood of Pb to accumulate above the China food standard limit of 0.2 mg·kg-1 (DW). This risk was significantly decreased to 2.39% when the CEC levels of affected soils was improved to 20 cmol·kg-1 and above.
Keywords: lead accumulation risk; positive matrix factorization(PMF); source apportionment; stochastic simulation; transfer evaluation; wheat grain.