Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply Against Catastrophic Food Shocks

Juan B García Martínez; Joshua M Pearce; James Throup; Jacob Cates; Maximilian Lackner; David C Denkenberger

doi:10.3389/fbioe.2022.906704

Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply Against Catastrophic Food Shocks

Front Bioeng Biotechnol. 2022 Jul 25:10:906704. doi: 10.3389/fbioe.2022.906704. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Juan B García Martínez¹, Joshua M Pearce², James Throup¹, Jacob Cates¹, Maximilian Lackner^{3

4}, David C Denkenberger^{1

5}

Affiliations

¹ Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), Fairbanks, AK, United States.
² Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Western University, London, ON, Canada.
³ FH Technikum Wien, Wien, Austria.
⁴ Circe Biotechnologie GmbH, Wien, Austria.
⁵ University of Alaska Fairbanks (Mechanical Engineering and Alaska Center for Energy and Power), Fairbanks, AK, United States.

Abstract

Global catastrophes such as a supervolcanic eruption, asteroid impact, or nuclear winter could cause global agricultural collapse due to reduced sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. The human civilization's food production system is unprepared to respond to such events, but methane single cell protein (SCP) could be a key part of the solution. Current preparedness centers around food stockpiling, an excessively expensive solution given that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS) could hamper conventional agriculture for 5-10 years. Instead, it is more cost-effective to consider resilient food production techniques requiring little to no sunlight. This study analyses the potential of SCP produced from methane (natural gas and biogas) as a resilient food source for global catastrophic food shocks from ASRS. The following are quantified: global production potential of methane SCP, capital costs, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates, and retail prices. In addition, potential bottlenecks for fast deployment are considered. While providing a more valuable, protein-rich product than its alternatives, the production capacity could be slower to ramp up. Based on 24/7 construction of facilities, 7%-11% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year. Despite significant remaining uncertainties, methane SCP shows significant potential to prevent global protein starvation during an ASRS at an affordable price-US$3-5/kg dry.

Keywords: existential risk; food security; global catastrophic food shock; global catastrophic risk; methanotrophic bacteria; nuclear winter; resilient food; single cell protein.