Purpose: To develop and validate a risk score assessable in real-time using only retinal thickness-related values measured by spectral domain optical coherence tomography alone for use in population-based glaucoma mass screenings.
Methods: A total of 7572 participants (aged 35-74 years) underwent spectral domain optical coherence tomography examination annually between 2016 to 2021 in a population-based setting. We selected 284 glaucoma cases and 284 controls, matched by age and sex, from 11,487 scans in 2016. We conducted multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection of retinal thickness-related variables to develop the diagnostic models. The developed risk scores were applied to all participants in 2018 (9720 eyes), and we randomly selected 723 scans for validation. Additional validation using the Humphrey field analyzer was conducted on 129 eyes in 2020. We assessed the models using sensitivity, specificity, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and positive and negative predictive values.
Results: The best-predicting model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.96-0.98) with a sensitivity of 0.93 and specificity of 0.91. The validation dataset showed a positive predictive value of 90.8% for high-risk scorers, corresponding to 6.2% of the population, and negative predictive value of 88.2% for low-risk scorers, corresponding to 85.2%. Sensitivity and specificity for glaucoma diagnosis were 0.85 and 0.91, when we set the risk score cut-off at 90 points out of 100.
Conclusions: This risk score could be used as a valid index for glaucoma screening in a population-based setting.
Translational relevance: The score is feasible by installing a simple computer application on an existing spectral domain optical coherence tomography and will help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of glaucoma screening.