The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity

Roy Cerqueti; Fabio Tramontana; Marco Ventura

doi:10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2022.07.003

The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity

Math Soc Sci. 2022 Sep:119:97-107. doi: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2022.07.003. Epub 2022 Aug 3.

Authors

Roy Cerqueti^{1

2

3}, Fabio Tramontana⁴, Marco Ventura¹

Affiliations

¹ Sapienza University of Rome, Italy.
² London South Bank University, UK.
³ GRANEM, University of Angers, France.
⁴ DESP, University of Urbino, Italy.

Abstract

We introduce a dynamical system to model the complex interaction between COVID-19 and economic activity. The model introduces some novelties not accounted by SIR-like models. The equilibrium of the system is an unstable focus, with fluctuations having increasing size and periodicity. Numerical simulations of the model produce waves which reproduce the pandemic dynamics. In observing the stylized facts linking economics and pandemic and stating related reasonable assumptions, we obtain a Lotka-Volterra co-dynamics. This outcome is confirmed by extensive simulations. The outcomes obtained qualitatively replicate some important stylized facts deepening the knowledge about the role of some parameters in their origin and eventually in their shaping.

Keywords: COVID-19; Dynamical systems; Economic activity.