This study examined transitions in tobacco products use among Mexican smokers and dual users. Data were analyzed from exclusive smokers (n = 2,946) and dual users (n = 1,643) recruited from an online consumer research panel and surveyed every-four months from November 2018 to April 2021. For exclusive smokers, estimated transitions were (time "t + 1" four months after prior survey): a) remain as exclusive smokers; b) dual use; c) exclusive e-cigarette use or quit both products. Among dual users, transitions analyzed were: a) remain as dual user; b) exclusive smoker; c) exclusive e-cigarette user or quit both products. Multinomial models regressed transitions at "t + 1" on time "t" for control variables. Most exclusive smokers (81%) remained as such, 12.6% transitioned to dual use, 2.3% to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 4% quitted both products. Exclusive smokers were more likely to transition to dual use if they recently attempted to quit (AOR = 1.45) or had partners/family or friends who used e-cigarettes (AOR = 2.47 & 2.56 respectively). Most dual users (74.8%) remained as dual users, 20.4% transitioned to exclusive smoking, 1.6% transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 3.2% quitted both products. Dual users were more likely to transition to exclusive smoking if they had lower educational attainment, recently attempted to quit e-cigarettes (AOR = 1.70). Having friends who use e-cigarettes (AOR = 0.29) and higher smoking dependence (AOR = 0.55) were associated with a lower likelihood of quitting. Recent quit attempts and e-cigarette use among close social network members may explain the short-term transitions, though longer follow-up is needed to assess sustained smoking cessation.
Keywords: Adults; E-cigarettes; Longitudinal research; Smoking transitions.
© 2022 The Authors.