Continuous reduction in the levelized cost of energy is driving the rapid development of offshore wind energy (OWE). It is thus important to evaluate, from an environmental perspective, the implications of expanding OWE capacity on a global scale. Nevertheless, this assessment must take into account various scenarios for the growth of different OWE technologies in the near future. To evaluate the environmental impacts of future OWE development, this paper conducts a prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) including parameterized supply chains with high technology resolution. Results show that OWE-related environmental impacts, including climate change, marine ecotoxicity, marine eutrophication, and metal depletion, are reduced by ∼20% per MWh from 2020 to 2040 due to various developments including size expansion, lifetime extension, and technology innovation. At the global scale, 2.6-3.6 Gt CO2 equiv of greenhouse gas emissions are emitted cumulatively due to OWE deployment from 2020 to 2040. The manufacturing of primary raw materials, such as steel and fibers, is the dominant contributor to impacts. Overall, 6-9% of the cumulative OWE-related environmental impacts could be reduced by end-of-life (EoL) recycling and the substitution of raw materials.
Keywords: circularity; electricity production; offshore wind energy; prospective life cycle assessment; scenario analysis.