Scaling effects of temperature on parasitism from individuals to populations

Abstract

Parasitism is expected to change in a warmer future, but whether warming leads to substantial increases in parasitism remains unclear. Understanding how warming effects on parasitism in individual hosts (e.g. parasite load) translate to effects on population-level parasitism (e.g. prevalence, R₀ ) remains a major knowledge gap. We conducted a literature review and identified 24 host-parasite systems that had information on the temperature dependence of parasitism at both individual host and host population levels: 13 vector-borne systems and 11 environmentally transmitted systems. We found a strong positive correlation between the thermal optima of individual- and population-level parasitism, although several of the environmentally transmitted systems exhibited thermal optima >5°C apart between individual and population levels. Parasitism thermal optima were close to vector performance thermal optima in vector-borne systems but not hosts in environmentally transmitted systems, suggesting these thermal mismatches may be more common in certain types of host-parasite systems. We also adapted and simulated simple models for both types of transmission modes and found the same pattern across the two modes: thermal optima were more strongly correlated across scales when there were more traits linking individual- to population-level processes. Generally, our results suggest that information on the temperature dependence, and specifically the thermal optimum, at either the individual or population level should provide a useful-although not quantitatively exact-baseline for predicting temperature dependence at the other level, especially in vector-borne parasite systems. Environmentally transmitted parasitism may operate by a different set of rules, in which temperature dependence is decoupled in some systems, requiring the need for trait-based studies of temperature dependence at individual and population levels.

Keywords: climate change; disease; environmentally transmitted; scale; thermal; transmission; vector-borne.