Impact of a Clinical Text-Based Fall Prediction Model on Preventing Extended Hospital Stays for Elderly Inpatients: Model Development and Performance Evaluation

Abstract

Background: Falls may cause elderly people to be bedridden, requiring professional intervention; thus, fall prevention is crucial. The use of electronic health records (EHRs) is expected to provide highly accurate risk assessment and length-of-stay data related to falls, which may be used to estimate the costs and benefits of prevention. However, no studies to date have investigated the extent to which hospital stays could be shortened through fall avoidance resulting from the use of prediction tools.

Objective: We first estimated the extended length of hospital stay caused by falls among elderly inpatients. Next, we developed a model that predicts falls using clinical text as input and evaluated its accuracy. Finally, we estimated the potentially shortened hospital stay that would be made possible by appropriate interventions based on the prediction model.

Methods: Patients aged 65 years or older were selected as subjects, and the EHRs of 1728 falls and 70,586 nonfalls were subjected to analysis. The extended-stay lengths were estimated using propensity score matching of 49 associated variables. Bidirectional encoder representations from transformers and bidirectional long short-term memory methods were used to predict falls from clinical text. The estimated length of stay and the outputs of the prediction model were used to determine stay reductions.

Results: The extended length of hospital stay due to falls was estimated to be 17.8 days (95% CI 16.6-19.0), which dropped to 8.6 days when there were unobserved covariates at an odds ratio of 2.0. The accuracy of the prediction model was as follows: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.851; F-value, 0.165; recall, 0.737; precision, 0.093; and specificity, 0.839. When assuming interventions with 25% or 100% effectiveness against cases where the model predicted a fall, the stay reduction was estimated at 0.022 and 0.099 days/day, respectively.

Conclusions: The accuracy of the prediction model using clinical text is considered to be higher than the prediction accuracy of conventional assessments. However, our model's precision remained low at 9.3%. This may be due, in part, to the inclusion of cases in which falls did not occur because of preventative interventions during hospitalization. Nonetheless, it is estimated that interventions for cases when falls were predicted will reduce medical costs by 886 Yen/day (~US $6.50/day) of intervention, even if the preventative effect is 25%. Limitations include the fact that these results cannot be extrapolated to short- or long-term hospitalization cases, and that this was a single-center study.

Keywords: accident prevention; accidental falls; elderly; hospital; inpatients; machine learning; natural language processing; patient; prediction model; propensity score; risk assessment.