Purpose: To evaluate the predictive value of a (non-)sport-specific test battery on the future success of young cyclists, test scores were compared with competition performances 2-3 years later.
Methods: Three motor coordination, 5 physical performance, and 2 cycling-specific measurements were collected in 111 U15 (13.0-14.9 y) and 67 U17 (15.0-16.9 y) male road cyclists. In addition, maturity status, relative age, and competition history were assessed. National and provincial competition results 2-3 years later, in the U17year2 and U19year2 categories, were submitted to 2 separate 4-stage hierarchical regressions.
Results: The results of the model of the U15 group revealed that maturity, relative age, competition history, motor coordination, physical performance, and cycling-specific performance accounted for 22.6% of the variance in competitive success. For the U15 category, only maturity and motor coordination were significant predictors of competitive success in the U17year2 category. Maturity and motor coordination each uniquely explained ±5% of the variance. However, for the U17 group-neither motor coordination, physical performance, nor cycling-specific performance could predict competitive success in the U19year2 category.
Conclusions: The current study underlines the importance of general motor coordination as a building block necessary for optimal development in youth cycling. However, considering the lack of predictive value from the U17 category onward, other features may determine further development of youth athletes. Nevertheless, it is questioned why athletes need to possess a minimum level of all physical, motor coordination, and cycling-specific characteristics to experience success and enjoyment in their sport.
Keywords: (non-)sport-specific test battery; longitudinal study; road cycling; talent prediction; youth categories.