Based on a long-term experiment in Prague, established in 1954, we analyzed the effect of weather and seven fertilization treatments (mineral and manure treatments) on winter wheat grain yield (GY) and stability. In total, 23 seasons were analyzed, where a wheat crop followed a summer crop of potatoes. A regression analysis showed that, since the experiment started, there has been a significant increase in the annual daily maximum, average, and minimum temperature of 0.5 °C, and an increase in annual rainfall of 0.3 mm. Grain yield was positively associated with April precipitation, mean daily temperature in October, and daily maximum temperature in February. Yields were most stable between years with two fertilizer treatments that supplied a mean of 47 kg N ha-1yr-1, 54 kg P ha-1yr-1, and 108 kg K ha-1yr-1. The rate of N at which grain yield was optimized was determined according to the linear-plateau (LP) and quadratic response models as 44 kg N ha-1yr-1 for the long-strawed varieties and 87 kg N ha-1yr-1for short-strawed varieties. A gradual increase in yields was observed in all treatments, including the unfertilized control, which was attributed to improved varieties rather than to a changing climate.
Keywords: Triticum aestivum L.; climate change; farmyard manure; mineral fertilizers; non-linear response models; precipitation; temperature.