Fasting proinsulin levels may serve as a marker of β-cell dysfunction and predict type 2 diabetes (T2D) development. Kidneys have been found to be a major site for the degradation of proinsulin. We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of proinsulin for the risk of incident T2D added to a base model of clinical predictors and examined potential effect modification by variables related to kidney function. Proinsulin was measured in plasma with U-PLEX platform using ELISA immunoassay. We included 5001 participants without T2D at baseline and during a median follow up of 7.2 years; 271 participants developed T2D. Higher levels of proinsulin were associated with increased risk of T2D independent of glucose, insulin, C-peptide, and other clinical factors (hazard ratio (HR): 1.28; per 1 SD increase 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.52). Harrell's C-index for the Framingham offspring risk score was improved with the addition of proinsulin (p = 0.019). Furthermore, we found effect modification by hypertension (p = 0.019), eGFR (p = 0.020) and urinary albumin excretion (p = 0.034), consistent with an association only present in participants with hypertension or kidney dysfunction. Higher fasting proinsulin level is an independent predictor of incident T2D in the general population, particularly in participants with hypertension or kidney dysfunction.
Keywords: hypertension; kidney dysfunction; predictive value; proinsulin; type 2 diabetes.