Calculating the individual probability of successful ocriplasmin treatment in eyes with vitreomacular traction-Validation and refinement of a multivariable prediction model

PLoS One. 2022 Jul 25;17(7):e0270120. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270120. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Purpose: To evaluate a multivariable model predicting the individual probability of successful intravitreal ocriplasmin (IVO) treatment in eyes with vitreomacular traction (VMT).

Methods: Data from three prospective, multicenter IVO studies (OASIS, ORBIT, and INJECT) were pooled. Patients were included if they were treated for a symptomatic VMT without a full-thickness macular hole. A prediction model for VMT resolution using the factors 'age' and 'horizontal VMT diameter' was validated by receiver operating characteristic analysis and according to grouped prediction after calibration. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to check robustness and explore further improvements.

Results: Data from 591 eyes was included. In the univariate analysis all key factors (age, gender, VMT diameter, lens status, ERM) significantly correlated to treatment success. The prediction model was robust and clinically applicable to estimate the success rate of IVO treatment (AUC of ROC: 0.70). A refinement of the model was achieved through a calibration process.

Conclusion: The developed multivariable model using 'horizontal VMT diameter' and 'age' is a valid tool for prediction of VMT resolution upon IVO treatment.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Fibrinolysin / therapeutic use
  • Humans
  • Intravitreal Injections
  • Peptide Fragments / therapeutic use
  • Probability
  • Prospective Studies
  • Retinal Perforations* / drug therapy
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Tomography, Optical Coherence
  • Traction
  • Visual Acuity
  • Vitreous Detachment*

Substances

  • Peptide Fragments
  • microplasmin
  • Fibrinolysin

Grants and funding

Oxurion provided support in the form of a salary for TR. Novartis Pharma GmbH also provided support in the form of a salary for TB. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.