Development of a long-term time-weighted exposure metric that accounts for missing data in the Seychelles Child Development Study

Abstract

In many studies of the health effects of toxicants, exposure is measured once even though exposure may be continuous. However, some studies collect repeated measurements on participants over an extended time with the goal of determining a long-term metric that captures the average or cumulative exposure. This can be challenging, especially when exposure is measured at irregular intervals and has some missing values. Here we describe a method for determining a measure of long-term exposure using data on postnatal mercury (Hg) from the Seychelles Child Development Study (SCDS) Main Cohort as a model. In this cohort (n = 779), we incorporate postnatal Hg values that were measured on most study participants at seven ages, three between 6 months and 5.5 years ("childhood"), and an additional four between 17 and 24 years ("early adulthood"). We develop time-weighted measures of average exposure during the childhood and the early adulthood periods and compare the strengths and weaknesses of our metric to two standard measures: overall average and cumulative exposure. We account for missing values through an imputation method that uses information about age- and sex-specific Hg means and the participant's Hg values at similar ages to estimate subject-specific missing Hg values. We compare our method to the implicit imputation assumed by these two standard methods, and to Fully Conditional Specification (FCS), an alternative method of imputing missing data. To determine the accuracy of our imputation method we use data from participants with no missing Hg values in the relevant time window. The imputed values from our proposed method are substantially closer to the observed values on average than the average or cumulative exposure, while also performing slightly better than FCS. In conclusion, time-weighted long-term exposure appears to offer advantages over cumulative exposure in longitudinal studies with repeated measures where the follow-up period for a toxicant is similar for all participants. Additionally, our method to impute missing values maximizes the number of participants for whom the overall exposure metric can be calculated and should provide a more accurate long-term exposure metric than standard methods when exposure has missing values. Our method is applicable to any study of long-term toxicant effects when longitudinal exposure measurements are available but have missing values.

Keywords: Cumulative exposure; Mercury; Missing data; Postnatal; Seychelles Child Development Study.