The ability to selectively photoexcite at different Brillouin zone valleys forms the basis of valleytronics and other valley-related physics. Symmetry arguments combined with static lattice first-principles calculations suggest an ideal 100% valley polarization in transition-metal dichalcogenides under circularly polarized light. However, experimental reports of the valley polarization range from 32% to almost 100%. Possible explanations for this discrepancy include phonon-mediated transitions, which would place a fundamental limit to valley polarization, and defect-mediated transitions, which could, in principle, be reduced with cleaner samples. We explore the phonon-mediated fundamental limit by performing calculations of phonon-mediated optical absorption for circularly polarized light entirely from the first principles. We also use group theory to reveal the microscopic mechanisms behind the phonon-mediated excitations, discovering contributions from several individual phonon modes and from multiphonon processes. Overall, our calculations show that the phonon-limited valley polarization is around 70% at room temperature for state-of-the-art valleytronic materials including MoSe_{2}, MoS_{2}, WS_{2}, WSe_{2}, and MoTe_{2}. This fundamental limit implies that sufficiently pure transition-metal dichalcogenides are ideal candidates for valleytronics applications.