Objective: To understand the epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS and its change trend in the Belt and Road countries and provide evidence for the improvement of prevention and control of the cross-border transmission of HIV/AIDS. Methods: The 145 countries that have signed the cooperation document of the Belt and Road initiative with China were selected in our study. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in the 145 countries from 2013 to 2019 were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in 2019 were used to describe the HIV/AIDS epidemics in 145 countries, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence was calculated to analyze the trend of HIV/AIDS incidence from 2013 to 2019. Results: In 2019, Africa had the highest proportion of countries with HIV/AIDS incidence exceeding 40.00 per 100 000 (56.86%, 29/51), and Asia had the lowest proportion (5.41%, 2/37). The countries with the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS exceeding 100.00 per 10 000 were almost distributed in Africa, accounting for 20.69% (30/145). From 2013 to 2019, the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS increased in 50 countries, accounting for 34.48% (50/145). The incidence rate of HIV/AIDS showed downward trends in 69 countries (47.59%, 69/145), and showed no significant change in 26 countries (17.93%, 26/145). The most obvious increase of incidence rate of HIV/AIDS was observed in Comoros (EAPC=15.60, 95%CI: 5.84-26.26) and the most obvious decrease was observed in Burundi (EAPC=-14.27, 95%CI: -15.21 to -13.31). Conclusions: In the Belt and Road countries, the most severe disease burden of HIV/AIDS was observed in countries in Africa, and the incidences of HIV/AIDS increased rapidly in some European countries, which means the risk of cross-border transmission still exists. Hence, the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS in China should be further strengthened in the future.
目的： 了解“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS的流行现状及变化趋势，为防范HIV/AIDS跨境传播提供依据。 方法： 选取与我国签署了共建“一带一路”合作文件的145个国家为本研究的“一带一路”沿线国家；145个国家2013-2019年HIV/AIDS年龄标化的发病率、患病率数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究。使用2019年年龄标化的发病率、患病率描述145个国家HIV/AIDS的流行现状。通过计算年估计百分比变化（EAPC），分析HIV/AIDS发病率在2013-2019年的变化趋势。 结果： 2019年，在非洲、亚洲、欧洲、北美洲、南美洲和大洋洲中，HIV/AIDS发病率≥40.00/10万的国家占比最高的地区是非洲，为56.86%（29/51）；最低的是亚洲，为5.41%（2/37）。145个国家中，HIV/AIDS患病率≥100.00/万的国家多数位于非洲，占20.69%（30/145）。2013-2019年，HIV/AIDS发病率呈上升趋势的国家共50个（34.48%，50/145）；呈下降趋势的国家共69个（47.59%，69/145）；无显著变化的国家共26个（17.93%，26/145）。其中发病率上升速度最快的国家是科摩罗（EAPC=15.60，95%CI：5.84~26.26），下降速度最快的国家是布隆迪（EAPC=-14.27，95%CI：-15.21~-13.31）。 结论： “一带一路”沿线国家中，非洲国家HIV/AIDS疫情较严峻；部分欧洲国家HIV/AIDS发病率上升速度较快，存在跨境传播风险，未来应进一步加强我国艾滋病防控工作。.