Current rising concerns about environmental and climate impacts in production, consumption and end-of-life of plastics have led to efforts to switch from linear to circular economy of plastics in Europe. Greenhouse gas emissions are likely to decrease with a transition to a circular system; however, a systematic and integrated perspective on plastics and the carbon cycle is currently missing in the debate on plastics. In this study, a model to estimate greenhouse gas emissions of the current mostly linear plastics value chain of the EU in 2018 and a future scenario, 2025 model, were created. By 2025 if current policy targets are reached, the plastic packaging recycling rate should be 50%, PET-based drinking bottles should include 25% recycled content, 77% collection target for plastic bottles, 10 Mt recyclates should enter the markets, uptake of bio-based plastics is estimated by European bioplastics to increase from current 1 to 1.32% and landfilling will continue to decrease according to the current trend at 3.85%. Total greenhouse gas emissions caused by the current plastics value chain are estimated at 208 million tonnes of CO2-eq. The 2025 model estimates that total plastics value chain emissions will be 182 Mt of CO2-eq. Reduction potential is approximately 26 Mt of CO2-eq or 13%.
Keywords: Carbon footprint; Circular economy; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Plastic value chain; Plastics.
© The Author(s) 2022.