Natural infection with the influenza virus is believed to generate cross-protective immunity across both types and subtypes. However, less is known about the persistence of this immunity and thus the susceptibility of individuals to repeat infection. We used 13 years (2005-2017) of surveillance data from Queensland, Australia, to describe the incidence and distribution of repeat influenza infections. Consecutive infections that occurred within 14 days of prior infection were considered a mixed infection; those that occurred more than 14 days later were considered separate (repeat) infections. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to investigate the probability of reinfection over time and the Prentice, Williams and Peterson extension of the Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association of age and gender with reinfection. Among the 188 392 notifications received during 2005-2017, 6165 were consecutively notified for the same individual (3.3% of notifications), and 2958 were mixed infections (1.6%). Overall, the probability of reinfection was low: the cumulative incidence was <1% after one year, 4.6% after five years, and 9.6% after ten years. The majority of consecutive infections were the result of two type A infections (43%) and were most common among females (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.21), children aged less than 5 years (relative to adults aged 18-64 years aHR: 1.58, 95% CI 1.47-1.70) and older adults aged at least 65 years (aHR: 1.35; 95% CI 1.24-1.47). Our study suggests consecutive infections are possible but rare. These findings have implications for our understanding of population immunity to influenza.
Keywords: Epidemiology; influenza; recurrence; reinfection; survival analysis.