Historical and future climate change fosters expansion of Australian harvester termites, Drepanotermes

Abstract

Past evolutionary adaptations to Australia's aridification can help us to understand the potential responses of species in the face of global climate change. Here, we focus on the Australian-endemic genus Drepanotermes, also known as Australian harvester termites, which are mainly found in semiarid and arid regions of Australia. We used species delineation, phylogenetic inference, and ancestral state reconstruction to investigate the evolution of mound-building in Drepanotermes and in relation to reconstructed past climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that mound-building evolved several times independently in Drepanotermes, apparently facilitating expansions into tropical and mesic regions of Australia. The phylogenetic signal of bioclimatic variables, especially limiting environmental factors (e.g., precipitation of the warmest quarter), suggests that the climate exerts a strong selective pressure. Finally, we used environmental niche modeling to predict the present and future habitat suitability for eight Drepanotermes species. Abiotic factors such as annual temperature contributed disproportionately to calibrations, while the inclusion of biotic factors such as predators and vegetation cover improved ecological niche models in some species. A comparison between present and future habitat suitability under two different emission scenarios revealed continued suitability of current ranges as well as substantial habitat gains for most studied species. Human-mediated climate change occurs more quickly than these termites can disperse into newly suitable habitat; however, their role in stabilizing arid ecosystems may allow them to mitigate effects on some other organisms at a local level.

Keywords: Drepanotermes; ancestral state reconstruction; climate change; ecological niche modeling; mound-building; species delineation.