Gouty arthritis is the most common form of inflammatory arthritis and flares frequently after surgeries. Such flares impede early patient mobilization and lengthen hospital stays; however, little has been reported on gout flares after spinal procedures. This study reviewed a database of 6439 adult patients who underwent thoracolumbar spine surgery between January 2009 and June 2021, and 128 patients who had a history of gouty arthritis were included. Baseline characteristics and operative details were compared between the flare-up and no-flare groups. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze predictors and construct a predictive model of postoperative flares. This model was validated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Fifty-six patients (43.8%) had postsurgical gout flares. Multivariate analysis identified gout medication use (odds ratio [OR], 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14−0.75; p = 0.009), smoking (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.34−7.80; p = 0.009), preoperative hemoglobin level (OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53−0.87; p = 0.002), and hemoglobin drop (OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.25−2.96; p = 0.003) as predictors for postsurgical flare. The area under the ROC curve was 0.801 (95% CI, 0.717−0.877; p < 0.001). The optimal cut-off point of probability greater than 0.453 predicted gout flare with a sensitivity of 76.8% and specificity of 73.2%. The prediction model may help identify patients at an increased risk of gout flare.
Keywords: flare; gout; postsurgical gout flare; risk factor; spine surgery.